How 2024 Elections Will Shape Tech Investment
By Carsten Krause, October 8, 2024
With the 2024 presidential election nearing, the economic battle between Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris isn’t just a theoretical debate—it’s a blueprint for the future of American business. These plans will reshape corporate strategies, redefine tech investment opportunities, and potentially shift the global economic landscape. For C-level executives, understanding the implications of these plans is critical, not only for large corporations but also for startups navigating an increasingly competitive environment.
This isn’t just about taxes—though they are a big piece of the puzzle. We’re talking about broader economic policies that cover everything from technology investments to labor markets, trade, energy, and innovation. Let’s break down how the policies will shape the future economy, analyze what they mean for different types of businesses, and explore how technology can support and enhance both large corporations and small startups.
Trump’s Economic Plan: Corporate Tax Cuts, Go Back, Deregulation, and “Make America Great – Again, Again”
Trump’s economic platform is a direct continuation of his policies from 2017-2021. At its core, his strategy is about driving short-term growth through corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and protectionist trade policies. While his proposals may boost profits for large companies in traditional industries, the tech sector faces a more complex outlook under this framework.
Trump’s Core Economic Strategies
- Corporate Tax Cuts: Trump’s plan to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 20%, with a special 15% rate for manufacturers, is aimed at driving corporate profits and reinvestment. While this helps established businesses, the impact on the tech sector—already rich in cash reserves—might be marginal, although it could spark an increase in mergers and acquisitions.
- Deregulation: Trump’s deregulatory focus primarily targets energy, finance, and traditional industries. For tech companies, this can mean faster approval processes for products, but it also risks undermining consumer data privacy protections, which could harm trust in technology platforms.
- Trade and Tariffs: Trump’s “America First” policies, including tariffs on Chinese imports, directly impact the tech sector, where the global supply chain is crucial. His tariff strategy has led to higher costs for tech manufacturing and could push companies to shift production back to the U.S.—a potentially costly move.
- Energy Expansion: While Trump’s energy policies favor fossil fuels, the growing tech sector is increasingly aligned with clean energy goals. Major tech companies like Microsoft and Google have already pledged carbon neutrality, suggesting a mismatch between Trump’s energy policy and the tech industry’s sustainability focus.
Chart 1: U.S. Corporate Tax Rate Changes and GDP Growth (2016-2020)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
This chart illustrates the short-term GDP growth following the 2017 corporate tax cuts, with growth slowing by 2019. While tax cuts provide immediate capital for businesses, long-term gains in sectors like technology remain uncertain.
Harris’s Economic Plan: America is Already Great, Move Forward, Tax the Wealthy, Invest in Innovation, and Build Infrastructure
Harris’s economic strategy is built around addressing inequality, boosting public investment, and fostering innovation—especially in the tech and clean energy sectors. Her plan to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy, and redirect those funds into education, infrastructure, and green technology, positions the U.S. to become a leader in emerging industries.
Harris’s Core Economic Strategies
- Progressive Taxation: Harris proposes raising the corporate tax rate to 28% and increasing taxes on individuals earning over $1 million annually. Her plan aims to generate $2 trillion in revenue, much of which would be funneled into tech-driven sectors such as clean energy, AI, and biotechnology. These funds could be a windfall for tech companies focusing on infrastructure and smart city solutions.
- Infrastructure and Clean Energy Investment: Harris’s commitment to a $2 trillion infrastructure plan focuses heavily on technology-enabled solutions for transportation, smart grids, and renewable energy. This investment could lead to explosive growth in the Internet of Things (IoT), AI, and energy-efficient tech.
- Support for Startups and Small Businesses: Harris is committed to simplifying tax compliance and increasing deductions for startups, especially in tech-driven sectors like biotech, AI, and clean energy. By providing resources to entrepreneurs, her plan could make the U.S. a global hub for innovation.
- Education and Workforce Development: Harris has emphasized the importance of upskilling the American workforce, particularly in tech fields. Her education initiatives include expanding access to STEM education and making community college tuition-free. This could help bridge the current tech skills gap and prepare more Americans for high-demand jobs in AI, cybersecurity, and data science.
Chart 2: Projected Revenue from Harris’s Corporate Tax Increase (2025-2035)
Source: Tax Policy Center, https://www.taxpolicycenter.org
This chart shows the projected revenue from Harris’s corporate tax increase, which would raise $2 trillion over the next decade, much of which is expected to be reinvested into tech-driven infrastructure and clean energy projects.
Technology Investments: Large Corporations vs. Startups
Technology has become the backbone of every industry, and both Trump and Harris’s economic plans will influence the future of tech investments—albeit in different ways.
Trump’s Impact on Large Tech Corporations
For large tech companies, Trump’s tax cuts are a boon in the short term, providing additional cash flow to reinvest in R&D or fuel acquisitions. However, Trump’s trade policies—particularly his tariffs on Chinese imports—complicate the global supply chain for tech hardware companies like Apple, Dell, and Intel. While lower taxes may boost profits, higher tariffs could increase production costs, offsetting any gains.
Tech companies, particularly those in software and services, might see fewer direct benefits from Trump’s deregulation agenda, which tends to favor traditional industries. Moreover, the lack of a clear plan for workforce development in tech leaves a looming skills gap, especially in areas like AI, cybersecurity, and cloud computing.
Harris’s Impact on Tech Startups
Harris’s focus on clean energy and tech infrastructure investment opens significant opportunities for startups in renewable energy, smart city tech, and biotechnology. With increased access to public funding, these startups could drive innovation in AI, IoT, and sustainable technology. Her tax incentives for startups, paired with simplified compliance, could foster a boom in tech entrepreneurship.
Moreover, Harris’s commitment to education and upskilling the workforce is a long-term play for the tech sector. By expanding access to STEM education and training, her plan could create a more tech-literate workforce, closing the skills gap and ensuring that companies have the talent they need to innovate.
Chart 3: Impact of Economic Policies on Startups vs. Large Corporations (2025-2035)
Source: Tax Policy Center, https://www.taxpolicycenter.org
This chart shows the projected impact of Trump and Harris’s tax policies on startups and large corporations, with Harris’s plan offering more direct support to innovation-driven startups, while Trump’s plan continues to favor large corporations through tax cuts.
The Technology Labor Market: Skills Gap and Job Creation
Both Trump and Harris’s plans will have substantial impacts on the technology labor market, particularly when it comes to addressing the skills gap in fields like AI, data science, and cybersecurity.
- Under Trump: While Trump’s policies focus on lowering taxes and deregulation, there is little emphasis on workforce development in technology sectors. Without a clear plan for addressing the growing tech skills gap, companies may struggle to find qualified talent to fill high-demand roles in AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity. The continuation of his immigration policies also complicates the situation for tech companies relying on global talent, as visa restrictions make it harder to recruit internationally.
- Under Harris: Harris’s commitment to upskilling the American workforce is a direct response to the increasing demand for tech talent. By expanding access to STEM education and making community college tuition-free, Harris’s plan could help create a new generation of tech workers. For C-level executives, this means a more robust pipeline of talent and fewer skills shortages, especially in cutting-edge sectors like AI, cybersecurity, and renewable energy tech.
Chart 4: Projected Job Creation in Infrastructure and Clean Energy (2025-2035)
Source: Brookings Institution, https://www.brookings.edu
This chart highlights the potential for job creation in infrastructure and clean energy under Harris’s plan, demonstrating significant growth in high-tech and sustainable industries over the next decade.
How Technology Can Drive Economic Growth Across Businesses
No matter who wins in 2024, technology will play a crucial role in supporting the broader economy. For large corporations, digital transformation and AI integration can drive efficiency, reduce costs, and create new revenue streams. Meanwhile, for small businesses and startups, technology can offer scalability, market reach, and innovation in ways that were previously unimaginable.
Here are a few ways technology will help support businesses—large and small:
- Automation and AI: Both large corporations and startups can leverage AI and automation to streamline operations, reduce human error, and cut costs. Whether through automating routine tasks, improving supply chain logistics, or enhancing customer service with AI-driven chatbots, these technologies will become even more crucial for business resilience.
- Digital Platforms for Scale: Startups and small businesses can utilize digital platforms to scale more quickly and efficiently. From cloud computing to e-commerce platforms, these tools allow companies to expand without the need for massive upfront investments in infrastructure.
- Cybersecurity: As companies continue their digital transformations, cybersecurity will be critical for both large corporations and small businesses. The need for advanced security technologies—such as blockchain, AI-powered threat detection, and encryption—will only grow as businesses become more reliant on data-driven operations.
- Sustainability Technologies: With the growing focus on climate change and sustainable practices, tech companies are developing solutions that drive both profit and environmental stewardship. Harris’s focus on clean energy will likely accelerate growth in renewable technologies, while Trump’s energy policies may give fossil fuel companies more runway but leave clean energy companies to innovate independently.
The CDO TIMES Bottom Line
Trump and Harris present two distinct visions for the U.S. economy, each with significant implications for technology and business leaders. Trump’s pro-business, deregulatory approach offers immediate advantages for large corporations, particularly in traditional sectors like energy, manufacturing, and finance. However, his lack of focus on tech workforce development and trade policies that introduce tariffs could lead to rising production costs and talent shortages in the technology sector.
On the other hand, Harris’s strategy is built on long-term public investment in technology, infrastructure, and clean energy. While her corporate tax policies may raise costs in the short term, they are designed to foster sustainable growth through innovation in AI, biotech, and renewable energy. Harris’s emphasis on workforce development and education could help address the tech skills gap, building a stronger foundation for the future of U.S. technology competitiveness.
Interestingly, Harris’s focus on infrastructure modernization has gained support from conservative business leaders who recognize the need for large-scale investments to keep the U.S. competitive in the global economy. While Trump’s plan may provide quicker returns for large corporations, Harris’s focus on sustainable innovation and talent development offers a vision better aligned with long-term economic resilience.
Both economic plans present opportunities, but the best path forward depends on your industry’s needs and strategic priorities. For businesses in traditional sectors, Trump’s immediate tax benefits and deregulation may be appealing. However, tech-driven sectors looking to innovate, expand, and attract talent may find Harris’s plan more aligned with their goals.
Beyond these economic considerations, it’s important to recognize that the policy choices on the table go beyond corporate balance sheets. They have the potential to affect not only the economy but society as a whole, influencing the very institutions that underpin democracy. As business leaders, fostering an environment where diverse opinions are welcomed and discussed thoughtfully is crucial to shaping the future of the country.
As we navigate this critical election season, take time to reflect on how these policy differences will impact not just your business, but the broader societal and democratic landscape. The future of the economy and the nation’s direction are intertwined—your voice and your vote matter.
Stay tuned to The CDO TIMES for continued expert analysis on how these policies will reshape the future of business and the U.S. economy.
For further reading, visit the sources:
- Tax Foundation: https://taxfoundation.org
- Tax Policy Center: https://www.taxpolicycenter.org
- Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu
- Equitable Growth: https://equitablegrowth.org
- Joseph Stiglitz Research: https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz
- Project 2025: https://www.factcheck.org/2024/09/a-guide-to-project-2025/
Love this article? Embrace the full potential and become an esteemed full access member, experiencing the exhilaration of unlimited access to captivating articles, exclusive non-public content, empowering hands-on guides, and transformative training material. Unleash your true potential today!
Order the AI + HI = ECI book by Carsten Krause today! at cdotimes.com/book
Subscribe on LinkedIn: Digital Insider
Become a paid subscriber for unlimited access, exclusive content, no ads: CDO TIMES
Do You Need Help?
Consider bringing on a fractional CIO, CISO, CDO or CAIO from CDO TIMES Leadership as a Service. The expertise of CDO TIMES becomes indispensable for organizations striving to stay ahead in the digital transformation journey. Here are some compelling reasons to engage their experts:
- Deep Expertise: CDO TIMES has a team of experts with deep expertise in the field of Cybersecurity, Digital, Data and AI and its integration into business processes. This knowledge ensures that your organization can leverage digital and AI in the most optimal and innovative ways.
- Strategic Insight: Not only can the CDO TIMES team help develop a Digital & AI strategy, but they can also provide insights into how this strategy fits into your overall business model and objectives. They understand that every business is unique, and so should be its Digital & AI strategy.
- Future-Proofing: With CDO TIMES, organizations can ensure they are future-proofed against rapid technological changes. Our experts stay abreast of the latest AI, Data and digital advancements and can guide your organization to adapt and evolve as the technology does.
- Risk Management: Implementing a Digital & AI strategy is not without its risks. The CDO TIMES can help identify potential pitfalls and develop mitigation strategies, helping you avoid costly mistakes and ensuring a smooth transition with fractional CISO services.
- Competitive Advantage: Finally, by hiring CDO TIMES experts, you are investing in a competitive advantage. Their expertise can help you speed up your innovation processes, bring products to market faster, and stay ahead of your competitors.
By employing the expertise of CDO TIMES, organizations can navigate the complexities of digital innovation with greater confidence and foresight, setting themselves up for success in the rapidly evolving digital economy. The future is digital, and with CDO TIMES, you’ll be well-equipped to lead in this new frontier.
Do you need help with your digital transformation initiatives? We provide fractional CAIO, CDO, CISO and CIO services, do a Preliminary ECI and Tech Navigator Assessment and we will help you drive results and deliver winning digital and AI strategies for you!
Subscribe now for free and never miss out on digital insights delivered right to your inbox!
