The Future of Work and Happiness: Navigating AGI and Universal Basic Income

By Carsten Krause, June 23, 2024

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In a recent article by Avital Balwit, Chief of Staff to the CEO at Anthropic, “My Last Five Years of Work,” she shares her personal reflections on the rapid advancements in AI and its potential to render many forms of human labor obsolete. This contemplation is not just a speculative exercise but a pressing reality for many working at the forefront of AI development. As Balwit suggests, the advancements in AI, particularly the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), might soon lead to a world where traditional employment is no longer necessary or available.

The Current State of AI and AGI Predictions

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work. Currently, AI systems excel in specific domains, but AGI would signify a leap to systems that can understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks. Experts have varying opinions on when AGI will be realized. Some, like Ray Kurzweil, predict AGI by 2045, while others believe it could be sooner or later. According to a survey conducted by AI researchers, there is a 50% chance of AGI being achieved by 2050 and a 10% chance by 2026. Read more at: https://www.businessinsider.com/artificial-general-intelligence-ai-timeline-when-2021-6

Countries Experimenting with Universal Basic Income

As we stand on the brink of significant technological upheaval, the concept of Universal Basic Income (UBI) becomes increasingly relevant. UBI is a policy where all citizens receive a regular, unconditional sum of money from the government, intended to cover basic living expenses. Several countries have already begun experimenting with UBI to varying degrees of success.

1. Finland: From 2017 to 2018, Finland conducted a UBI experiment where 2,000 unemployed citizens received €560 per month, regardless of whether they found work. The study found that while UBI did not significantly boost employment, recipients reported better mental health and well-being (source).
   
2. Canada: In Ontario, a pilot project ran from 2017 to 2019, providing 4,000 low-income individuals with a basic income. The project was cut short, but preliminary findings indicated improved financial stability and mental health among participants (source).
   
3. United States: Several cities, including Stockton, California, have launched UBI trials. Stockton’s project provided $500 per month to 125 residents for two years, resulting in improved economic stability and mental health for recipients (source).
   
4. Spain: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Spain implemented a form of UBI called the Minimum Vital Income, targeting the poorest households. This program aims to reduce poverty and promote economic stability (source).

The Obsolescence of Knowledge Work

As AI continues to develop, the impact on knowledge work is becoming increasingly apparent. Knowledge work encompasses tasks that involve reading, analyzing, synthesizing information, and generating content. Jobs such as copywriting, tax preparation, customer service, and even software development are increasingly subject to automation. The advancements in AI suggest that any task that can be done online is likely to be performed better by AI in the near future.

“AI systems are improving at an exponential rate, and it’s only a matter of time before they surpass human capabilities in most knowledge-based tasks,” says Andrew Ng, Co-founder of Coursera and Google Brain. Read more at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/andrew-ng-how-to-become-an-ai-company/

One of the key drivers of AI’s ability to outperform humans in knowledge work is its capacity for continuous learning and adaptation. As Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, notes, “We are on the verge of machines that can learn and think as well as humans. The implications for the workforce are profound, and we need to start preparing for a future where many traditional jobs are no longer necessary.” Read more at: https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/30/22357218/sam-altman-openai-dall-e-gpt-3-interview

Moreover, the scalability of AI systems means they can handle vast amounts of data and perform complex analyses far beyond human capabilities. “AI doesn’t get tired, it doesn’t need breaks, and it can process data 24/7. This makes it an incredibly powerful tool for tasks that require high levels of precision and consistency,” says Fei-Fei Li, Co-Director of Stanford University’s Human-Centered AI Institute. Read more at: https://hai.stanford.edu/news/why-ai-must-be-human-centered-fei-fei-li

The increasing sophistication of AI also raises questions about the future role of humans in the workplace. While some jobs will undoubtedly be lost to automation, new opportunities may emerge. As Kai-Fu Lee, author of “AI Superpowers,” suggests, “AI will create new kinds of jobs, but these will require different skills. We need to focus on education and training to prepare the workforce for these changes.” Read more at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickwwatson/2020/06/16/kai-fu-lee-on-how-to-thrive-in-china-and-what-to-learn-from-china-ai/?sh=10c3c5b42f4d

However, the transition may not be smooth for everyone. “The disruption caused by AI will be significant, and there will be winners and losers. It’s crucial that we develop policies to support those who are negatively affected,” warns Yoshua Bengio, a pioneer in deep learning and AI researcher at the University of Montreal. Read more at: https://www.wired.com/story/ai-pioneer-yoshua-bengio-is-imagining-the-future-of-the-world/

In summary, the obsolescence of knowledge work due to AI advancements is not just a possibility; it is an impending reality. The future will likely see AI systems performing many tasks currently done by humans, leading to significant changes in the job market. Preparing for this future involves not only technological advancements but also societal and policy adaptations to ensure a smooth transition and support for those affected.

Psychological and Social Implications

The psychological impact of unemployment is complex. Research indicates that unemployment can lead to increased rates of mental and physical health issues. However, these studies often conflate the financial stress and societal shame associated with unemployment with the absence of work itself.

Studies on temporary layoffs during the COVID-19 pandemic provide some insights. Research by Schieman, Mai, and Kang found that temporarily laid-off workers reported lower distress initially, viewing the period as a “forced vacation” (source). This suggests that context and societal attitudes play significant roles in how unemployment is experienced.

Can Society Thrive Without Traditional Work?

Balwit and many others argue that work provides more than just income; it offers structure, purpose, and social connections. However, historical and contemporary examples suggest that humans can find meaning and happiness outside traditional employment.

1. Retirement: Many retirees report increased happiness and well-being after leaving the workforce, particularly when they remain physically active and socially engaged (source).
   
2. Aristocrats and Leisure: Historical aristocracies, with minimal work obligations, filled their time with social, intellectual, and creative pursuits, suggesting that structured leisure can also provide a fulfilling life.
   
3. Hobbies and Volunteering: Many people find joy and purpose in activities that are not economically productive but are personally meaningful, such as hobbies, volunteering, and community involvement.
   

The Role of AI in Shaping the Future of Work

The advent of AI is set to revolutionize not only the types of jobs available but also the very nature of work itself. As AI systems increasingly take over routine and knowledge-based tasks, new ways of working and innovative business models will emerge. Additionally, certain professions, particularly executive roles, are likely to thrive as we transition to an economy with Universal Basic Income (UBI).

New Ways of Working and Business Models

1. Gig Economy Expansion: The gig economy, characterized by short-term, flexible jobs, is likely to expand. Platforms like Uber, TaskRabbit, and Upwork already facilitate gig work, but AI can further enhance this model. AI can optimize matching between gig workers and tasks, predict demand for services, and provide real-time assistance to gig workers, making the gig economy more efficient and attractive.
2. Remote and Decentralized Workforces: AI technologies like advanced collaboration tools, virtual reality (VR), and augmented reality (AR) can make remote work more effective. Companies can operate with decentralized teams across the globe, leveraging AI to manage projects, communicate seamlessly, and maintain productivity. For example, companies like GitLab and Automattic operate fully remotely, using AI-driven tools to manage their dispersed workforce.
3. AI-Augmented Creativity: While AI can automate many tasks, it also enhances human creativity. AI tools can assist in generating new ideas, designs, and content. For instance, platforms like Canva use AI to suggest design elements, while tools like GPT-4 can help writers brainstorm and draft content. This synergy between human creativity and AI augmentation is likely to lead to new forms of creative work and business models.
4. Personalized Services and Products: AI allows businesses to offer highly personalized products and services. Companies can use AI to analyze consumer data and tailor offerings to individual preferences. For example, Netflix uses AI algorithms to recommend shows, and Amazon uses AI to suggest products. This personalization extends to healthcare, where AI can provide personalized treatment plans based on a patient’s unique genetic makeup and health history.
5. Subscription-Based Models: As AI reduces the cost of production, more businesses may adopt subscription-based models. Companies like Adobe and Microsoft have shifted to subscription services for software, ensuring a steady revenue stream and ongoing customer engagement. AI helps maintain and improve these services by continuously learning from user interactions and updating offerings accordingly.
   

Examples of Emerging Professions

1. AI Ethics and Policy Experts: As AI becomes more integrated into society, the need for experts in AI ethics and policy will grow. These professionals will address the ethical implications of AI, develop regulations, and ensure that AI technologies are used responsibly.
2. Human-Machine Teaming Managers: With AI systems working alongside humans, there will be a need for managers who can effectively integrate and oversee these hybrid teams. These professionals will ensure that AI and human workers complement each other and work harmoniously.
3. Virtual Reality Experience Designers: As VR technology advances, there will be a demand for designers who can create immersive and engaging virtual experiences for entertainment, education, and training purposes.
4. Sustainability Consultants: Companies and governments will increasingly seek advice on how to operate sustainably. Sustainability consultants will provide expertise on reducing carbon footprints, implementing green technologies, and developing sustainable business practices.
5. Personal Well-being Coaches: With more leisure time and financial stability from UBI, individuals may seek guidance on how to lead fulfilling lives. Personal well-being coaches will help people set and achieve goals related to health, happiness, and personal development.

Executive Roles Likely to Thrive in this Era:

1. Chief AI Officer (CAIO): As AI becomes integral to business operations, the role of Chief AI Officer will be crucial. The CAIO will oversee the integration of AI technologies into business processes, ensuring that AI strategies align with overall corporate goals. They will be responsible for managing AI projects, overseeing data governance, and ensuring ethical AI practices.
2. Chief Innovation Officer (CINO): The CINO will drive innovation within the company, leveraging AI and other emerging technologies to create new products and services. They will focus on fostering a culture of innovation, managing research and development, and identifying opportunities for technological advancements.
3. Chief Data Officer (CDO): The role of CDO will expand as data becomes more central to business operations. The CDO will manage data assets, ensuring data quality, security, and compliance. They will also oversee data analytics and use AI to derive actionable insights that drive business decisions.
4. Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO): As AI transforms the workforce, the CHRO’s role will evolve to manage the human-AI collaboration. They will focus on reskilling employees, managing the integration of AI into the workplace, and ensuring a positive work environment. The CHRO will also address the ethical implications of AI in HR practices, such as recruitment and performance evaluation.
5. Chief Sustainability Officer (CSO): With increasing emphasis on sustainability, the CSO will play a critical role in integrating sustainable practices into business operations. They will use AI to optimize resource use, reduce the company’s carbon footprint, and ensure compliance with environmental regulations. The CSO will also lead initiatives to promote social responsibility and sustainable development.
6. Chief Customer Experience Officer (CCXO): The CCXO will focus on enhancing the customer experience through personalized services powered by AI. They will oversee customer service operations, using AI to analyze customer data and develop strategies to improve customer satisfaction and loyalty. The CCXO will also manage AI-driven marketing initiatives to engage customers effectively.
7. Chief Compliance Officer (CCO): As AI technologies raise new regulatory and ethical concerns, the CCO will ensure that the company adheres to legal and ethical standards. They will oversee compliance with regulations related to data privacy, AI ethics, and other relevant laws. The CCO will also develop policies to mitigate risks associated with AI deployment.
8. Chief Digital Transformation Officer (CDTO): The CDTO will lead the digital transformation initiatives within the company, integrating AI and other digital technologies to streamline operations and enhance efficiency. They will oversee the implementation of digital tools, manage change processes, and ensure that the company stays ahead in the digital age.

The CDO TIMES Bottom Line

In summary, AI’s role in shaping the future of work will lead to new ways of working, innovative business models, and the emergence of new executive roles. As UBI provides financial stability, these executive roles will be crucial in navigating the transition, leveraging AI to drive innovation, and ensuring ethical and sustainable business practices. Preparing for this future involves embracing these changes, reskilling the workforce, and developing policies that support a smooth transition.

The advent of AGI and the potential for widespread unemployment present significant challenges and opportunities. Countries experimenting with Universal Basic Income provide valuable insights into how societies might adapt to these changes. The psychological and social implications of a work-free world are complex but not insurmountable. With careful planning, societal support, and the innovative use of AI, humanity can navigate this transition and potentially create a world where everyone can find meaning and fulfillment outside traditional employment structures.

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