Semiconductors Had Their Run. Here's Where I'm Putting My Money Next. – vocal.media
Let me tell you what I believe.
Semiconductors - the chips that power everything from your phone to AI data centers - have been the greatest wealth-building sector of the last decade. If you held SMH (the semiconductor ETF) for the past 10 years, you're up roughly 15x.
Fifteen times your money. Just for owning chip companies.
But I think that run is ending. Not crashing - ending. The easy gains are behind us.
And the next massive asymmetric bet? Quantum computing.
Let me explain why in the simplest terms possible.
Here's the thing about computer chips: they work by cramming tiny switches called transistors onto a piece of silicon.
More transistors = more power = faster computers.
For 50 years, we've been making these transistors smaller and smaller. Every couple of years, we fit twice as many on a chip. This pattern is called Moore's Law, and it's why your phone today is more powerful than supercomputers from the 1990s.
But here's the problem:
We're running out of room.
Transistors are now so small - we're talking a few atoms wide - that we're hitting the physical limits of how small things can get.
Atoms don't shrink. Physics doesn't negotiate.
The industry knows this. That's why they're doing things like vertical stacking - basically building skyscrapers instead of sprawling cities on the chip. It buys time, but it doesn't solve the fundamental problem.
We've been squeezing juice from the same orange for decades. The orange is almost dry.
Quantum computing isn't a better chip. It's a completely different approach to computing.
I'm going to explain this in terms that make sense to me - and hopefully it does for you too:
Normal computers think in 1s and 0s. Every calculation is either "yes" or "no." "On" or "off." One thing at a time.
Quantum computers use something called qubits, which can be 1, 0, or BOTH at the same time. It's like being able to explore every path in a maze simultaneously instead of trying them one by one.
For certain types of problems - drug discovery, financial modeling, cryptography, logistics, AI training - quantum computers won't be 10x faster.
They'll be millions of times faster.
Or they'll solve problems that regular computers literally cannot solve in any reasonable timeframe.
This isn't science fiction. IBM, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and a wave of startups are pouring billions into making this real. Google claimed "quantum supremacy" back in 2019 - their quantum computer solved a problem in 200 seconds that would take a traditional supercomputer 10,000 years.
We're early. But we're not that early.
I think about it like this:
The Silicon Era (1970s-2020s) was about making transistors smaller and faster. We perfected it. We rode it for 50 years. It created Intel, Nvidia, TSMC, AMD - trillion-dollar companies.
The Qubit Era (2020s-?) is about solving problems differently. Not faster chips. A fundamentally new kind of computing.
We're at the transition point right now.
Most people don't see it because quantum computers aren't in their phones yet. They're not consumer products. They're in labs and data centers, being developed by companies most people have never heard of.
That's exactly when asymmetric bets are made - before everyone sees it.
Here's what I mean by "asymmetric":
If I'm wrong about quantum computing, and it takes 20 years instead of 10 to become mainstream, I lose some opportunity cost. I could've put the money elsewhere.
If I'm right, and quantum computing becomes the next foundational technology layer - like semiconductors were - the returns could be generational.
The downside is limited. The upside is enormous.
That's asymmetry. And that's why I'm willing to place this bet now, while most people are still focused on riding the last wave.
Let me be clear: I'm not saying semiconductors are dead.
Nvidia will still sell GPUs. TSMC will still manufacture chips. The industry will still make money.
But the growth rate of the last decade? The 15x returns? That required a constantly expanding frontier - smaller transistors, more density, new applications.
That frontier is narrowing.
Can semiconductors still return 2–3x over the next decade? Maybe. But the asymmetric upside is gone. You're betting on optimization now, not revolution.
Quantum is the revolution.
I'm not a financial advisor, and this isn't advice. But I'll tell you what I'm doing with my own money:
Maintaining some semiconductor exposure - the sector isn't dying, it's maturing. I still own positions, but I'm not adding aggressively.
Building a quantum computing position - through a mix of pure-play quantum companies and larger tech companies with serious quantum divisions (IBM, Google, Microsoft).
Accepting that this is a long-term bet - quantum computing might not deliver mainstream returns for 5–10 years. I'm okay with that. Asymmetric bets require patience.
Staying educated - this space moves fast. I'm reading, watching, learning. The more I understand, the stronger my conviction gets.
"Quantum computers are decades away from being useful."
People said the same thing about AI three years before ChatGPT. The timeline on transformative technology is always uncertain - but it's usually shorter than skeptics think once it hits an inflection point.
"It's too early to invest. There's no revenue."
Early is where the returns are. By the time quantum computing companies have predictable revenue, the 10x opportunity is gone. You'll be buying at fair value, not undervalue.
"I don't understand quantum computing well enough."
You don't need to understand quantum mechanics to invest in it, just like you don't need to understand semiconductor fabrication to invest in Nvidia. You need to understand the market opportunity and the direction of travel.
"Semiconductors still have room to run."
Maybe. But the risk/reward has shifted. You're no longer early to semiconductors. You are early to quantum.
When I'm evaluating where to put money, I ask:
"Where is the world going that most people don't see yet?"
Ten years ago, the answer was AI and semiconductors. The people who saw that made fortunes.
Today, AI is consensus. Everyone sees it. It's priced in.
Quantum computing is not consensus. Most people think it's too far away. Too speculative. Too confusing.
That's exactly how every asymmetric opportunity looks before it becomes obvious.
Here's the deal:
If I'm wrong about quantum computing - if it stalls, if the technology doesn't scale, if it takes 30 years instead of 10 - I'll have made a bet that didn't pan out as fast as I hoped.
That's fine. That's investing. Not every conviction plays out on your timeline.
But if I'm right?
If quantum computing follows the trajectory that semiconductors followed - from niche technology to foundational infrastructure - the early investors will see returns that make the semiconductor boom look modest.
I'd rather be early to the right thing than late to the last thing.
But atoms don't shrink. The physics wall is real. Vertical stacking is a band-aid, not a cure.
The next paradigm shift isn't a smaller transistor. It's a completely different kind of computing.
Quantum computing is that shift.
I'm not telling you to follow my bet. I'm telling you this is MY conviction. I've done the research. I understand the risk. And I think the Qubit Era is coming faster than most people expect.
If I'm wrong, tell me why.
But if I'm right, I'll see you on the other side.
Investing is the EXIT.
This article is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or legal advice. Consult a financial professional before making any significant financial decisions.
—
(Bedroom) Anywhere • Full Body / Stamina • 2 Minutes for each exercise
Heart Rate Raiser - slow building jumping jacks, start gentle and increase speed every 15 seconds (get the blood flowing everywhere)
Hip Opener Flow - deep lunge holds alternating sides with hip circles (you're gonna need these later)
Missionary Push-Ups - slow controlled push-ups with a 3-second hold at the bottom (endurance over speed tonight)
Flexibility Check - standing hamstring stretch into standing splits progression, each leg (no cramping allowed)
Cardio Stamina Builder - burpees at a pace you could sustain for… a while (if you're gassed after 2 minutes we need to talk)
Total Time: 10 Minutes
10 minute workouts you can do anywhere.
Writing since 11. Investing and Lifting since 14.
destinyh.com
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