Idle Mines or Algorithmic Alchemy? AI, Quantum Claims, and the Real Rare Earth Bottleneck – Rare Earth Exchanges
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Feb 15, 2026
In simple terms instead of spending 10 to 20 years opening new rare earth mines, advanced computing tools might speed up the discovery of substitute materials. Could this be a possibility? According to Jack Hidary, CEO (opens in a new tab) of SandboxAQ (opens in a new tab) AI and quantum computing could dramatically shorten the time needed to design alternative alloys or synthetic materials. If successful, that could reduce dependence on China’s rare earth supply chain.
This perspective (opens in a new tab) was raised via South China Morning Post (SCMP), correctly stating that China controls most rare earth mining and roughly 90% of global processing and refining capacity. That concentration is real and strategically significant.
The question is whether software can outpace supply chains.
China’s dominance is not just aboutdigging minerals from the ground. It is about processing.
Rare earth ores must go through complex chemical separation using solvent extraction systems. Then they must be refined, alloyed, and manufactured into high-performance magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, defense systems, and industrial motors.
The SCMP article properly includes cautionary voices. It notes that laboratory discoveries do not automatically become industrial supply. That balance is important. It is also true that AI is increasingly used in materials science. These tools can simulate molecules, predict alloy properties, and reduce trial-and-error research cycles.
That part of the story is credible.
The article impliesthat advanced computing could help bypass the long timelines of miningdevelopment. That is plausible in theory — but incomplete in practice.
Even if a substitute material is discovered, several steps remain:
Rare earth magnets are valued for very specific properties — strength, temperature stability, corrosion resistance, and cost efficiency. Matching all of those characteristics simultaneously is extremely difficult.
Discovery is only the first mile. Industrial scaling is the marathon.
The rare earth bottleneck today is not primarily about finding deposits. It is about midstream capacity:
China built these systems over decades. That infrastructure cannot be replaced by computation alone.
The SCMP piece is forward-looking and not overtly promotional. However, like many technology-driven narratives, it leans toward optimism about speed. It does not fully emphasize how long industrial adoption cycles can be.
While not misinformation, it is certainly incomplete framing, and investors need to understand objectively such prospects.
AI and quantum computing may very wellreshape materials research. They may reduce dependence on certain rare earth elements over time. But rare earth dominance is an industrial ecosystem issue, not just a chemistry problem.
Breaking concentrated supply requires factories, capital, talent mobilization and policy alignment — not just algorithms.
For investors, the message is clear: computing may accelerate innovation, but the decisive battleground remains midstream infrastructure. The rare earth contest will be won in separation plants and magnet lines we believe — not only in quantum labs.
Source: South China Morning Post, Jevans Nyabiage, February 15, 2026.
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By Daniel
Inspired to launch Rare Earth Exchanges in part due to his lifelong passion for geology and mineralogy, and patriotism, to ensure America and free market economies develop their own rare earth and critical mineral supply chains.
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