EVs could be cheaper to own than gas cars in Africa by 2040 – MIT Technology Review

The transition to electric vehicles has some momentum.
Electric vehicles could be economically competitive in Africa sooner than expected. Just 1% of new cars sold across the continent in 2025 were electric, but a new analysis finds that with solar off-grid charging, EVs could be cheaper to own than gas vehicles by 2040.
There are major barriers to higher EV uptake in many countries in Africa, including a sometimes unreliable grid, limited charging infrastructure, and a lack of access to affordable financing. As a result some previous analyses have suggested that fossil-fuel vehicles would dominate in Africa through at least 2050. 
But as batteries and the vehicles they power continue to get cheaper, the economic case for EVs is building. Electric two-wheelers, cars, larger automobiles, and even minibuses could compete in most African countries in just 15 years, according to the new study, published in Nature Energy.
“EVs have serious economic potential in most African countries in the not-so-distant future,” says Bessie Noll, a senior researcher at ETH Zürich and one of the authors of the study.
The study considered the total cost of ownership over the lifetime of a vehicle. That includes the sticker price, financing costs, and the cost of fueling (or charging). The researchers didn’t consider policy-related costs like taxes, import fees, and government subsidies, choosing to focus instead on only the underlying economics.
EVs are getting cheaper every year as battery and vehicle manufacturing improve and production scales, and the researchers found that in most cases and in most places across Africa, EVs are expected to be cheaper than equivalent gas-powered vehicles by 2040. EVs should also be less expensive than vehicles that use synthetic fuels. 
For two-wheelers like electric scooters, EVs could be the cheaper option even sooner: with smaller, cheaper batteries, these vehicles will be economically competitive by the end of the decade. On the other hand, one of the most difficult segments for EVs to compete in is small cars, says Christian Moretti, a researcher at ETH Zürich and the Paul Scherrer Institute in Switzerland.
Because some countries still have limited or unreliable grid access, charging is a major barrier to EV uptake, Noll says. So for EVs, the authors analyzed the cost of buying not only the vehicle but also a solar off-grid charging system. This includes solar panels, batteries, and the inverter required to transform the electricity into a version that can charge an EV. (The additional batteries help the system store energy for charging at times when the sun isn’t shining.)
Mini grids and other standalone systems that include solar panels and energy storage are increasingly common across Africa. It’s possible that this might be a primary way that EV owners in Africa will charge their vehicles in the future, Noll says.
One of the bigger barriers to EVs in Africa is financing costs, she adds. In some cases, the cost of financing can be more than the up-front cost of the vehicle, significantly driving up the cost of ownership.
Today, EVs are more expensive than equivalent gas-powered vehicles in much of the world. But in places where it’s relatively cheap to borrow money, that difference can be spread out across the course of a vehicle’s whole lifetime for little cost. Then, since it’s often cheaper to charge an EV than fuel a gas-powered car, the EV is less expensive over time. 
In some African countries, however, political instability and uncertain economic conditions make borrowing money more expensive. To some extent, the high financing costs affect the purchase of any vehicle, regardless of how it’s powered. But EVs are more expensive up front than equivalent gas-powered cars, and that higher up-front cost adds up to more interest paid over time. In some cases, financing an EV can also be more expensive than financing a gas vehicle—the technology is newer, and banks may see the purchase as more of a risk and charge a higher interest rate, says Kelly Carlin, a manager in the program on carbon-free transportation at the Rocky Mountain Institute, an energy think tank.
The picture varies widely depending on the country, too. In South Africa, Mauritius, and Botswana, financing conditions are already close to levels required to allow EVs to reach cost parity, according to the study. In higher-risk countries (the study gives examples including Sudan, which is currently in a civil war, and Ghana, which is recovering from a major economic crisis), financing costs would need to be cut drastically for that to be the case. 
Making EVs an affordable option will be a key first step to putting more on the roads in Africa and around the world. “People will start to pick up these technologies when they’re competitive,” says Nelson Nsitem, lead Africa energy transition analyst at BloombergNEF, an energy consultancy. 
Solar-based charging systems, like the ones mentioned in the study, could help make electricity less of a constraint, bringing more EVs to the roads, Nsitem says. But there’s still a need for more charging infrastructure, a major challenge in many countries where the grid needs major upgrades for capacity and reliability, he adds. 
Globally, more EVs are hitting the roads every year. “The global trend is unmistakable,” Carlin says. There are questions about how quickly it’s happening in different places, he says, “but the momentum is there.”
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